Climate change is leading to higher and more variable temperatures, rising sea levels, and more severe droughts, floods and storms, resulting in infrastructure damage, loss of biodiversity and diminished livelihoods. The increasing impact of climate change and extreme weather also have a net negative effect on public finances and may trigger economic instability and political shocks.

Notably, temperature in Côte d’Ivoire is projected to rise by between 1.7 and 3.7 °C by 2080, compared to pre-industrial levels1 while precipitation trends are highly uncertain with projections ranging from little change to an annual precipitation decrease of up to 65 mm by 2080. Under RCP6.0 (Representative Concentration Pathways), sea level is expected to rise by 39 cm until 2080, which threatens Côte d’Ivoire’s coastal communities and may cause saline intrusion in coastal waterways and groundwater reservoirs. In July 2018, the World Bank evaluated the losses to Cote d’Ivoire’s GDP associated with climate change at between $681 million and $1.4 billion in constant 2017 USD between now and 2040.2 Notably, agriculture, livestock and aquaculture sectors are expected to be affected and climate change is likely to cause severe damage to the infrastructure sector in Côte d’Ivoire, particularly to transport infrastructure, which is vulnerable to extreme weather events and essential for economic activity related to trading of agricultural goods. Per capita water availability is also expected to decline by 2080.3

In Kenya, the annual mean increase has risen by approximately 1.0°C, at an estimated average rate of 0.21°C per decade. Temperatures in Kenya are projected to continue rising by 1.7°C by the 2050s and by approximately 3.5°C at the end of the century.4

Precipitation trends for Kenya are highly variable and extreme rainfall events are occurring with greater frequency and intensity. Aridity and droughts have also increased, with moderate drought events recorded on average every three to four years and major droughts every ten years. Droughts have had the greatest economic impact (8% of GDP every five years), with as many as 28 droughts recorded in the past 100 years, appearing term access to climate finance, including from the private sector, to meet their NDC and NAP goals.10

The objective of this PPF is to tap into this potential by supporting the design and establishment of a Green and Resilient Debt Platform (GRDP) to unlock public and private climate finance at scale through the issuance of green bonds, notably for adaptation in Africa and LDCs. The PPF will examine the potential impact, feasibility and structure of the GRDP within the ecosystem of the EU’s Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI), which aims to unlock up to $2 billion with a total impact of $15-20 billion.11